Opinion
As the New Year begins, so do new polls about the new presidential election that will take place this November.
While American politics has been somewhat less than easily predictable lately, when it comes young voters and minorities, things are trending in the wrong direction for incumbent Joe Biden.
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Trump Now Leading With Key Parts of Biden’s 2020 Coalition
Donald Trump running as a Republican has presented plenty of challenges for the Democrats, notably maneuvering them into major platform changes, particularly on foreign policy. What comes after that are traditionally-Democratic voting blocs.
Ones the Democrats would like to keep.
USA Today reports:
President Joe Biden heads into the election year showing alarming weakness among stalwarts of the Democratic base, with Donald Trump leading among Hispanic voters and young people. One in 5 Black voters now say they’ll support a third-party candidate in November.
In a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, Biden’s failure to consolidate support in key parts of the coalition that elected him in 2020 has left him narrowly trailing Trump, the likely Republican nominee, 39%-37%; 17% support an unnamed third-party candidate.
…
Biden now claims the support of just 63% of Black voters, a precipitous decline from the 87% he carried in 2020, according to the Roper Center. He trails among Hispanic voters by 5 percentage points, 39%-34%; in 2020 he had swamped Trump among that demographic group 2 to 1, 65%-32%.
And among voters under 35, a generation largely at odds with the GOP on issues such as abortion access and climate change, Trump now leads 37%-33%. Younger voters overwhelmingly backed Biden in 2020.
If the center holds on some of these numbers, 2024 will be very different than 2020.
Will This Trend Continue Heading Into 2024?
These are sizable numbers of racial minorities and young people now moving toward Trump, or at least just leaving Biden.
As the story notes, these groups were important parts of Biden’s coalition in 2020.
With a little under a year out from the presidential election, will Biden be able to turn this around?
Or will this continue and we’re just looking at another presidential term from Donald Trump in 2024?
Stay tuned.
